Doomsday Prediction

In a recent discussion on the ‘Impact of Macroeconomics on Auto Industry’, the presenter painted a very rosy picture of the future when a participant asked, “So, what’s the catch?” The presenter just smiled in a resigned manner and replied,” Please vote judiciously. We are doomed if the next government is unstable.”

This article is an attempt to understand if we are doomed. So, will the next government be stable? What are the factors that will impact the stability of the next government?

Before I get into who will come to power, let me get this straight. Corruption will not be an issue in the elections. India is too big and diverse for that. Did Adarsh scam impact me on a personal level? Did CWG, Coalgate or 3G impact me? Actually 3G scam may be the reason call rates came down so drastically. The common man who is more than willing to bribe the policeman when in trouble, bribes to get gas connection early, uses influence to jump the queue in crowded temples, produces non-existent receipts in office for undeserved reimbursements and so on is not overly bothered about corruption. The issues in the election will be price rise, caste, religion, jobs, roads, electricity, Marathi/Gujarati/Tamil pride and other stuff like anti-incumbency, leadership etc

So let us make a broad assumption on the seats for the parties.

NDA – 210-220

UPA – 110-120

Others – 210-230

       So what are the options that we have?

1. Third front – Let us get this myth out first. Mamata cannot live with Left, SP cannot with BSP, ADMK and DMK, TDP and YSR Congress. This just means  “Others” is not 210-230, because as a single coalition, it cannot be more than 100-120
2.  Congress led, supported by others or Third Front supported by Congress. The previous point makes it clear that this option will also not reach the half-way mark
3.  NDA led, Modi as PM, supported by others – This looks like a distinct possibility, under the assumption that Jayalalitha and Naveen Patnaik will support Modi.
4. NDA led, puppet PM, supported by others – This option may bring in a few “secular” parties along. So this is also a possibility, though a little far-fetched.

This buzzword “secular” reminds me of the impression created against Congress and BJP by the media and the other parties. This by itself can form the basis of another blog. It is fascinating to see media houses give subtle/not-so-subtle hints against some of the parties. While the negative imagery of Congress is around words like corruption, dynasty, suffering and poverty, the ones around BJP are blood, riots, wounds, death, dark etc. This is an attempt to influence those who value life over survival, which is pretty much everyone. To find out if the attempt was successful, we will have to wait till May 16.

Well, I digressed. Now that option 3 or 4 looks probable, the other parties which will possibly support NDA will be ADMK, BJD, MNS, BSP and TMC. And this brings in a peculiar set of regional leaders: Raj Thackerey and the deadly trio of Jaya, Mamata and Maya. What is the common thread among these leaders? One, they can be very unpredictable. Two, you can’t afford to hurt their ego.  

People like Karunanidhi, Nitish, Mulayam and Left leaders can be expected to behave in a certain way, depending on the ministries they get and the CBI cases against them. But the others are not. In 1999, Jaya had lost an election recently and had so many corruption cases against her, she knew DMK may come in to prop up NDA, but still she pulled the plug. But it was fairly predictable when Left quit UPA over the Nuclear deal.

So, this unpredictability and ego of these leaders (Raj, Jaya, Mamata and Maya) will be the factors that will decide the stability of the next government. Tough I say.

A sample of the demands that will topple the next government will be

• -           Vote against Sri Lanka in UNHRC session. Else I Quit
• -          Dont dare release Teesta waters to Bangladesh. Else I Quit
• -          Give special status to my state. Else I Quit
• -          Remove CBI cases against me. Else I Quit
• -          Dont dare increase fuel prices, damn the Oil companies. Else I quit
• -          Dont rub my ego in any way. Else I Quit

So what does the next 5 years hold for us? In one word, DOOM.