Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Information Overload - Is it or Is it not?



As I was paying over the counter for Appy Fizz, I got a WhatsApp message that said,”Appy Fizz causes Cancer. Never drink it.” Oops. What do I do now?
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I have always thought that the amount of information man can store and process has remained almost constant throughout history. True, the variety of info that a man can remember today is much more than, say, 60000 years ago, but in terms of the amount of data, like in GBs, it hasn’t changed much at all. For example, a  Jaravan tribal, who has no exposure to the outside world,  can identify and differentiate more than 70 types of tubers that he has seen in his entire life of living in a 200sq.km forest while, evidently, we cannot.
                So, as the variety of information we encounter and digest increases, it leads to two distinct developments.

  •      It takes a lot of effort for someone to make me notice and absorb any info

  •      The info I absorb doesn’t stay in my mind for long


The first point has led to what I call the “death of superlatives.” Every video that is shared is “Best ever”, “ultimate” and “never seen before”, every quote “the greatest of the century”, every picture “the cutest” and “most beautiful”, every act “impossible” and “extraordinary”, every cricket match the “greatest ever” and so on.  This is the same reason why Arnab Goswami goes berserk on TV and politicians scream at each other. The same reason why some online news portals change the titles of the same news articles multiple times so as to be relevant on Google News. It takes so much effort to make me take notice.
The second has more interesting effects. The “best ever” TV series I watched this week is usurped by another next week and I don’t remember the “greatest IPL match” ever. This means that a marketer has to put in more effort to make me remember his product, the R&D line of automobile companies have to keep rolling out new cars because my attention span is lower  and Arnab has to report new “Extraordinary events” everyday.
This information overload has unleashed a new beast, actually an old beast in a deadlier version: false information. Whenever there is a crowd, there would be false information, miscommunication, rumours and outright lies. And internet is a big bad crowd of magnitude humanity has never dealt with before.

So, we have a FB post of a quote attributed to Lord Macaulay that says, “I have traveled across the length and breadth of India and I have not seen one person who is a beggar, who is a thief. Such wealth I have seen in this country, such high moral values, people of such calibre, that I do not think we would ever conquer this country, unless we break the very backbone of this nation, which is her spiritual and cultural heritage, and, therefore, I propose that we replace her old and ancient education system, her culture, for if the Indians think that all that is foreign and English is good and greater than their own, they will lose their self-esteem, their native self-culture and they will become what we want them, a truly dominated nation.” Sorry, he never said this.
Then there is one more that quotes Putin saying something about Minorities in Russia. Sorry, false again. Gujarat and Modi is another area where there is so much wrong info floating around. Health facts are another area victimised. Appy Fizz causes cancer. No, it does not. Mentos plus coke will cause instant death. No it doesn’t. Kurkure has plastic. Seriously? Mobile phones emit 1000 times stronger signals when battery is low. Oops, wrong again. Dont drink Tea in Plastic cup. It can cause 52 types of Cancer. Bullshit.

All these information have one or more of these following characteristics
-          They make you feel good about your history, culture or heritage
-          They make you feel extreme emotions like revenge
-          They threaten your existence itself
-          They usually quote reputed sources
-          They give credence to what you want to think of, but what may not actually be true
Biased information is a different thing altogether. Varied interpretations of correct data may exist. For example, 18 degrees at Bangalore may be cold for a Chennaite but warm for a Canadian. 

But how do we identify which information is right and which is wrong, assuming we usually seek the right information? These false info and rumours may have serious consequences, like when north east Indians packed their bags from Bangalore and went back to their homes because of rumours about danger to their lives. Or like past week, in Chennai, when after a bomb blast, there were rumours of multiple bombs planted across the city.
Usually, couple of extra clicks and minutes can dispel your doubts about any info that you encounter. But it is always necessary to take any info on social media with a pinch of salt, particularly when you decide to act upon that information. So the next time I encounter a picture that shows Buddhist monks throwing dead bodies into the fire, I would do some more research and find out that they were actually cremating victims of a huge cyclone in Myanmar.

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Doomsday Prediction



In a recent discussion on the ‘Impact of Macroeconomics on Auto Industry’, the presenter painted a very rosy picture of the future when a participant asked, “So, what’s the catch?” The presenter just smiled in a resigned manner and replied,” Please vote judiciously. We are doomed if the next government is unstable.”
This article is an attempt to understand if we are doomed. So, will the next government be stable? What are the factors that will impact the stability of the next government?
Before I get into who will come to power, let me get this straight. Corruption will not be an issue in the elections. India is too big and diverse for that. Did Adarsh scam impact me on a personal level? Did CWG, Coalgate or 3G impact me? Actually 3G scam may be the reason call rates came down so drastically. The common man who is more than willing to bribe the policeman when in trouble, bribes to get gas connection early, uses influence to jump the queue in crowded temples, produces non-existent receipts in office for undeserved reimbursements and so on is not overly bothered about corruption. The issues in the election will be price rise, caste, religion, jobs, roads, electricity, Marathi/Gujarati/Tamil pride and other stuff like anti-incumbency, leadership etc
So let us make a broad assumption on the seats for the parties.
NDA – 210-220
UPA – 110-120
Others – 210-230

       So what are the options that we have?

  1. Third front – Let us get this myth out first. Mamata cannot live with Left, SP cannot with BSP, ADMK and DMK, TDP and YSR Congress. This just means  “Others” is not 210-230, because as a single coalition, it cannot be more than 100-120
  2.  Congress led, supported by others or Third Front supported by Congress. The previous point makes it clear that this option will also not reach the half-way mark
  3.  NDA led, Modi as PM, supported by others – This looks like a distinct possibility, under the assumption that Jayalalitha and Naveen Patnaik will support Modi.
  4. NDA led, puppet PM, supported by others – This option may bring in a few “secular” parties along. So this is also a possibility, though a little far-fetched.

This buzzword “secular” reminds me of the impression created against Congress and BJP by the media and the other parties. This by itself can form the basis of another blog. It is fascinating to see media houses give subtle/not-so-subtle hints against some of the parties. While the negative imagery of Congress is around words like corruption, dynasty, suffering and poverty, the ones around BJP are blood, riots, wounds, death, dark etc. This is an attempt to influence those who value life over survival, which is pretty much everyone. To find out if the attempt was successful, we will have to wait till May 16.
Well, I digressed. Now that option 3 or 4 looks probable, the other parties which will possibly support NDA will be ADMK, BJD, MNS, BSP and TMC. And this brings in a peculiar set of regional leaders: Raj Thackerey and the deadly trio of Jaya, Mamata and Maya. What is the common thread among these leaders? One, they can be very unpredictable. Two, you can’t afford to hurt their ego.  
People like Karunanidhi, Nitish, Mulayam and Left leaders can be expected to behave in a certain way, depending on the ministries they get and the CBI cases against them. But the others are not. In 1999, Jaya had lost an election recently and had so many corruption cases against her, she knew DMK may come in to prop up NDA, but still she pulled the plug. But it was fairly predictable when Left quit UPA over the Nuclear deal.
So, this unpredictability and ego of these leaders (Raj, Jaya, Mamata and Maya) will be the factors that will decide the stability of the next government. Tough I say.
A sample of the demands that will topple the next government will be

  • -           Vote against Sri Lanka in UNHRC session. Else I Quit
  • -          Dont dare release Teesta waters to Bangladesh. Else I Quit
  • -          Give special status to my state. Else I Quit
  • -          Remove CBI cases against me. Else I Quit
  • -          Dont dare increase fuel prices, damn the Oil companies. Else I quit
  • -          Dont rub my ego in any way. Else I Quit

So what does the next 5 years hold for us? In one word, DOOM.